This week while in Sri Lanka I met two investors who were discussing the current economic climate. The current interest rate in Sri Lanka is 14%, which makes it very attractive to leave money sitting in the bank. The older gentleman was close to retirement age, so at this point in life he is more interested in taking the action that will have a guaranteed result. The younger gentleman is more interested in building a legacy by founding new businesses. Because of the amount of capital required to start a business he recognizes that cash flow is critical for success, but is hesitant to take a loan from the bank because it would be difficult to stay afloat with such high payments. However, it can be difficult to persuade investors to take the risk on a new business, so additional incentives help.
Inflation and unemployment have an inverse relationship. You can ’t have both become lower at the same time, but policymakers can decide acceptable threshold levels which will then inform which is more of a priority to pursue. It is good that people work at jobs, because then the GDP rises, which improves the nation’s economy as they become more efficient. But you see, a s more people get jobs, their income rises, and then their consumption also increases. Increased consumption means that prices generally rise as the goods go to the highest bidder. Workers in turn will demand higher wages in order to keep up with these rising prices, or inflation. So in the end, as unemployment decreases inflation will increase. I ’m not so sure that there really is a trade-off, as it seems to be more of a feedback cycle rather than something that can be legislated. And this feedback cycle seems to have a historic pattern as well. But overall, neither factor alone totally conveys the quality o...
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